Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend continued for yet another week and we saw the indicator painting strong blue “Go” bars for the entire week. Treasury bond prices hung on to their “Go” trend and as the week came to a close we saw bright blue bars. U.S. commodities painted nothing but bright blue bars as the “Go” trend looks strong. U.S. dollar prices also painted strong blue “Go” bars as it was a clean sweep in terms of “Go” trends for the major asset classes this week.
$SPY Sees “Go” Trend Hold Firm
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remained strong this week as price edged higher once again. The indicator painted a string of uninterrupted bright blue bars. GoNoGo Oscillator in the lower panel shows us that momentum is on the side of the “Go” trend at a value of 2. It is in positive territory but not overbought.
The weekly chart shows that the strong “Go” trend stays in place on the longer time frame. A narrower range this week as there is some consolidation perhaps but still another bright blue bar. GoNoGo Oscillator is at a value of 3 so in positive territory but not overbought. Momentum is confirming the “Go” trend we see in the price panel.
Treasury Rates Stay Depressed
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” trend remained firmly in place this week as the indicator painted a string of strong purple bars. We see that this is as price drops lower and is testing prior lows. GoNoGo Oscillator has broken out of an extended Max GoNoGo Squeeze back into negative territory. This tells us that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “NoGo” trend. This may help push rates to new lows this week.
Dollar in “Go” Trend but Going Nowhere
The trend in the dollar remains a “Go” this week but it still is struggling to make any moves, unable to make a higher high or lower low. We look at the oscillator panel and we can see that it is back at zero and riding that level again. We see the beginnings of a GoNoGo Squeeze as there is a battle for direction at these levels. We will watch for the break of this Squeeze to gives us clues as to where price will head next.
Oil “NoGo” Trend Remains Weak
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” remains weak with an entire week of pink bars. However, with GoNoGo Oscillator riding the zero line we will watch to see what happens here. Price is no where near a new high and there is a clustering of resistance above it. If GoNoGo Oscillator fails at zero then we will expect price to fall this week.
Gold Glistens in Long Term “Go” Trend
The weekly chart of Gold shows that it was a good week for the precious metal. A strong blue “Go” bar returned as price tests highs from earlier in the chart. We can see that GoNoGo Oscillator continues to find support at the zero line and that tells us that momentum remains on the side of the “Go” trend. As GoNoGo Oscillator bounces back into positive territory again, we will watch to see if this helps push price to a new higher high.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLY, $XLC, and $XLE are painting relative “Go” bars.
Energy Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the Energy sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLE. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLE is a new out-performer of the base index painting relative aqua “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the Oil and Equipment index in the 3rd panel is a strong outperformer on a relative basis painting bright blue bars.
$BWLP Looks for Momentum Support in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that we have been in a nice “Go” trend since June. Price has stepped through a series of higher highs and higher lows on its way to $16.60. We can see how each time after a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) GoNoGo Trend has painted weaker aqua bars price has fallen back to the upward sloping trend line and found support. As we would expect on a GoNoGo Chart, we see GoNoGo Oscillator finding support each time at the zero line as it should when the trend is strong. We see that yet again GoNoGo Trend is painting weaker aqua bars as it tests support and GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from above. We will watch for the oscillator to bounce back into positive territory which would indicating resurgent momentum in the direction of the “Go” trend and the possibility of a new higher high.
$TDW Tries to Set up For New High
The chart below shows that $TDW has been in a “Go” Trend for several months and we have seen a series of higher highs and higher lows. During this time we have seen GoNoGo Oscillator has remained at or above the zero line, finding support at that level each time it has fallen to it. Recently, we have seen the oscillator find support at zero several times and we see a clustering of Go Trend Continuation Icons (green circles) underneath price. With GoNoGo Trend painting strong blue bars, and GoNoGo Oscillator bouncing into positive territory again, we will watch to see if this gives price the push it needs to set a new higher high.
