Resistance ahead for 10 year treasury yields


March 2021


Alex Cole

10 year treasury yields have been rising rapidly.
This has caused much discussion regarding the effect this will have on the stock market. Yes, yields have been rising rapidly from the pandemic lows of around 40 basis points but remember that these yields are still historically low. Perhaps it is the speed of the rise that is more of a concern. Let's zoom out though and look at the GoNoGo chart using weekly data. Yes, yields have risen sharply, and a strong Go trend is in place. We see confirmation from the GoNoGo Oscillator which crossed above zero ahead of the trend change and has since stayed positive. There is a big looming area of resistance though on this chart. There is a lot of resistance from the yield levels that we saw in the second half of last year. Will this stop yields from going too much higher? In which case, will this be good for stocks?