$SPY wondering if Santa is late?

$SPY wondering if Santa is late?


December 2022


Alex Cole

$SPY hasn't rallied into the end of the year yet.

The fabled Santa rally suggests that stocks rally over the last five days of the year and first 2 of the next.  So far, this hasn't happened to end 2022.  What could this mean going forward?  Well, the stats show that generally speaking a non "Santa" year brings a weaker January and even the following year can be subdued.  Is there any reason to think this year will be different? Both daily and weekly charts show the $SPY in "NoGo" trends.  But if we zoom out, and look for the positives, there are a couple.  The weekly chart here shows bullish divergence, with price making lower lows while GoNoGo Oscillator rises to challenge the zero line.  Now, GoNoGo Oscillator, having nudged into positive territory, is retesting from above.  If support is found, perhaps momentum will be enough to suggest a change in trend.  Keeping it in context though, we know the weight of the evidence tells us "NoGo" trends are in place, but we'll keep listening for those reindeer bells!