Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend soared this week as we see GoNoGo Trend paint strong blue bars as price raced to new higher highs. Treasury bond prices saw the equity trend hang on but we see weakness with paler aqua bars. U.S. commodities remained in a “Go” trend and at the end of the week we saw strength return with bright blue bars. The dollar saw GoNoGo Trend paint a series of strong purple bars as the “NoGo” trend stayed strong.
$SPY Climbs to Higher High
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend thrived this week as GoNoGo Trend painted uninterrupted strong blue “Go” bars as price raced to a new high. GoNoGo Oscillator looked like it was going to fall out of overbought territory but it reversed course and is now at a value of 6. We will watch for that moment when momentum wanes and we see the oscillator fall below 5. This would trigger a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) on the price chart.
The weekly chart shows the strength of the “Go” trend we just looked at on the daily chart. We see the indicator paint a 3rd consecutive “Go” bar this week. Strong blue and closing higher tells us that the market has made up its mind about the direction. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory at a value of 3 and volume is heavy showing market participation in the “Go” trend.
Treasury Rates Remain in “NoGo” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that the new “NoGo” trend hung around this week although the Trend indicator shows weakness with pink bars as price rallied sharply from the most recent low. GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from below where we will watch to see if it finds resistance or if it is able to reclaim positive territory.
Dollar Sinks Even Further
The trend in the dollar remains a “NoGo” and the indicator painted strong purple bars this week as price fell to new lower lows. At the low, we see a NoGo Countertrend Correction Icon (green arrow) indicating that price may struggle to go lower in the short term. This is due to the fact that GoNoGo Oscillator has turned up from oversold territory and is at a value of -3.
Oil Manages to Remain in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows price consolidating this past week as it rose steadily from the gap lower the week before. GoNoGo Trend is once again painting strong blue bars after a run of paler aqua. GoNoGo Oscillator has returned quickly to test the zero line from below. We will watch to see if this level acts as resistance. For the “Go” trend to remain we will need to see the oscillator break back into positive territory.
Gold Refuses to Relinquish “Go” Trend
Gold saw the “Go” fight back again this past week as we see “Go” bars return after a couple of amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty. Price has moved sideways since the highs in May and we wait for the next major move. If we are looking for the “Go” trend to continue and for price to threaten new highs we will need to see GoNoGo Oscillator break back above the zero line in the coming days.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 2 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, and $XLC, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Technology Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the technology sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLK. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLK is a consistent out-performer of the base index painting strong relative blue “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the electrical equipment index in the second to last panel remains strong as it paints strong relative blue “Go” bars.
$CLS Breaks Above Significant Level
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend has continued to set higher highs and higher lows over the past several months and was able to break to new highs over a week ago. This past week, that level was challenged and we saw that it was used as support as price fell right down to it on weaker aqua bars. After finding support, we see GoNoGo Trend return to paint a strong blue “Go” bar and so we will look for more price gains this week. GoNoGo Oscillator is at a value of 5 and volume is heavy.
$TEL Shows Smooth “Go” Trend in Place
The chart below shows that $TEL has been in a “Go” trend since early May. Since that time we have seen a series of higher highs and higher lows as price has climbed above $175. We have seen a lot of momentum support during the trend as GoNoGo Oscillator has been at or above the zero line the entire time. With price painting strong blue bars and GoNoGo Oscillator at a value of 6 on heavy volume, we will watch to see if price can consolidate at these levels this week.
