Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend continued this week and after a few weaker aqua bars we saw strength return at the end of the week. Treasury bond prices saw amber “Go Fish” bars sprinkled among the “Go” bars as the trend hangs on. U.S. commodity prices saw a week of strong blue bars as the “Go” trend thrived and the dollar, while managing to remain in a “Go” trend, saw some weakness at the end of the week.
$SPY Rebounds at the End of the Week
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend suffered some weakness this week after falling from the high that was accompanied by a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow). However, support was found and we saw the last bar of the week rebound strongly with a bright blue “Go” bar pushing price back near prior highs. GoNoGo Oscillator found support at the zero line and so now we know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend.
The weekly chart shows that the strong “Go” trend continues on the longer time frame chart. We see another bright blue “Go” bar as price challenges yet again for another weekly higher close. GoNoGo Oscillator remains in positive territory but not quite overbought at a value of 4 and volume remains heavy.
Treasury Rates Continue to Meander Sideways
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” trend was in place the entire week and after several weaker pink bars we saw a strong purple bar on the last day of the week. We see that GoNoGo Oscillator is riding the zero line from below and it will be important to note the direction of the Max GoNoGo Squeeze break.
Dollar Displays Weakness
The trend in the dollar remains a “Go” this week but after failing to set a higher high we saw a weak bar that brought price lower on Friday. Turning our attention to the lower panel we can see that GoNoGo Oscillator has been rejected again by zero after retesting that level. This tells us that momentum is out of step with the “Go” trend. We will watch to see if there is a change in trend in the price panel this coming week.
Oil Sees “NoGo” Weaken
GoNoGo Trend shows that the new “NoGo” survived the week but we see some weakness as price tries to rally. We could be running into resistance from prior lows and so it will be interesting to see what plays out in the momentum panel in the next few days. Currently GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from below. If it is rejected here, we will know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “NoGo” trend an we could expect further movement lower.
Gold in Long Term Trend
The weekly chart of Gold below shows us that while there is a lot of chop on the daily chart the weekly chart is cleaner. Often, it is important to zoom out. We can see that the “Go” trend is in place but that no higher high has been made in quite some time. GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line again and it will be important that it finds support here. If it does, then we will look for the trend to continue.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 2 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLY, and $XLC, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Communications Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the communications sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLC. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLC is a new out-performer of the base index painting relative aqua “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the publishing index in the 4th panel is a brand new outperformer on a relative basis.
$OPRX Finds Support in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend paints a strong blue “Go” bar on the final bar of the week as price found support at horizontal level coming from a prior high. We look at the oscillator panel and we can see that GoNoGo Oscillator has bounced off zero and that tells us that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend. We will look for price to make a new higher high in the coming days.
$SCHL Likewise Looks For Support
The chart below shows that $SCHL appears to be once again finding support at the level that represents the top of a prior gap. However, it has failed to set a new higher high and now we see price falling to test that support level again. GoNoGo Oscillator has temporarily dipped into negative territory but is right back at zero retesting that level. If the oscillator can recapture positive territory then we would look to see if this would help push price to try to make an attempt at a new higher high.
