Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities see the “Go” trend return as we end last week with a weak aqua “Go” bar as price rallied from the low. Treasury bond prices show market uncertainty as the indicator paints a series of amber “Go Fish” bars. U.S. commodity prices have rallied back into a “Go” trend with a strong blue “Go” bar following a weaker aqua bar. The dollar has hung on to its “Go” trend for another week although we did see weakness creep in with a few aqua bars.
$SPY “Go” Trend Returns
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend came back this week. After a couple of amber “Go Fish” bars that followed a brief “NoGo” we see a new aqua “Go” bar as price tries to climb to new highs. GoNoGo Oscillator has broken back into positive territory following several bars below zero and this is a good sign for the new “Go” trend. Momentum is now inline with the underlying “Go”.
The weekly chart shows another bar of weak aqua “Go” color for the $SPY. However, we can see that it was a strong week with a close at the top of the bar. If we look at the oscillator panel we see that GoNoGo Oscillator found support fast as it tested the zero level from above. It has bounced back into positive territory which has triggered a Go Trend Continuation Icon (green circle) under price. We will watch to see if price can climb further from here.
Treasury Rates Fall Back to “NoGo”
GoNoGo Trend paints pink “NoGo” colors for most of the week after a few amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty. This comes as the indicator was unable to maintain the short lived “Go” trend. Amber bars arrived first as GoNoGo Oscillator failed to find support at the zero line. Now, with the “NoGo” in place, GoNoGo Oscillator is in negative territory but not oversold at a value of -3.
Dollar in “Go” Trend as Price Falls From High
The chart below shows that the dollar remains in a “Go” trend. We saw a new higher high on bright blue “Go” bars but weaker aqua bars have followed as price fell for consecutive bars. GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen to test the zero line from above where we will watch to see if it is able to find support. If the “Go” trend is to remain healthy, we would expect the oscillator to regain positive territory.
Oil Displays Chop as Indicator Paints “Go Fish” Bar
GoNoGo Trend shows that no trend is safe as the “NoGo” trend gave way to an amber “Go Fish” bar at the end of the week. This comes as price was unable to set a lower low. GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from below again where it has found resistance recently. We will watch to see if this pattern continues. If it does, there will be pressure on price to return to “NoGo” colors.
Gold “Go” Trend Is Back
The chart below shows that the “Go” trend has returned albeit painting weak aqua bars. This comes after price painted a string of amber “Go Fish” bars while GoNoGo Oscillator was riding the zero line. The oscillator found support and rallied back into positive territory giving price the push it needed to re-enter a “Go” trend. With GoNoGo Oscillator rising at a value of 2, we will watch to see if this helps the “Go” trend strengthen this week.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 2 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLE, and $XLV are painting relative “Go” bars.
Healthcare Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the healthcare sector this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLV. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLV is the new out-performing sector and paints strong relative “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the medical supplies index in the top panel is painting strong blue “Go” bars on a relative basis.
$HSIC Looks to Consolidate After New High
GoNoGo Trend shows that price has been in a “Go” trend since gapping higher earlier this month. After initially moving mostly sideways after multiple Go Countertrend Correction Icons (red arrows) we saw GoNoGo Oscillator find support at the zero line and bounce back into positive territory. This was a clear sign of Go Trend Continuation (green circle) and with momentum resurgent in the direction of the trend we saw price break to a new high on strong blue “Go” bars. We will watch to see if price can consolidate at these elevated levels and us prior highs as support if needed going forward.
$DXCM Sees Positive Momentum as “NoGo” Weakens
If there is any boost to be had from a relatively strong sector, perhaps this week will be good for $DXCM. It has been in a “NoGo” trend making lower highs and lower lows for several months but has once again rallied to test the downward sloping trend line. GoNoGo Oscillator has broken above the zero line after having burst out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze. We know that momentum is out of step with the “NoGo” trend. With positive momentum and price testing the trend line, we will watch to see if there is a possible trend change coming in the days and weeks ahead.
