Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend remained in a strong “Go” trend this week with the indicator painting bright blue bars. Treasury bond prices have been stuck in a strong “NoGo” for a few weeks now as we see purple bars. U.S. commodities have been able to move into a “Go” trend as well with strong blue bars. The dollar, although remaining in a “NoGo” trend is showing that the trend remains weak with pink bars.
$SPY Soars as “Go” Trend Stays Strong
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remains firmly in place as price races higher after the runaway gap last week. We will watch to see if we continue to climb to challenge prior highs from earlier in the chart. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory showing that momentum is confirming the trend we are seeing in the price panel. It is not yet overbought.
The weekly chart shows us that we have moved out of “NoGo” territory this week as the indicator paints an amber “Go Fish” bar. We know that we often see these amber bars in transitions between trends and so we will watch to see if the “Go” trend returns this week on the weekly chart. GoNoGo Oscillator continues to ride the zero line from below and volume is heavy. We will look to see if the oscillator can recover positive territory this week.
Treasury Rates Paint Mostly Blue “Go” Bars
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend was able to survive the week unscathed as we see a majority of bright blue bars. We are running up against a prior high so we will watch to see if we find any resistance at these levels this week. GoNoGo Oscillator was falling toward the zero line but has turned back up again and so now is in positive territory at a value of 3. This tells us that momentum is supporting the “Go” trend we see in the upper panel.
Dollar Paints Weak “NoGo” Bars
This week showed us that the “NoGo” trend is still in place even after GoNoGo Trend painted an amber “Go Fish” bar at the beginning of the week. However, over the past several weeks we are starting to see higher highs and higher lows. GoNoGo Oscillator remains in positive territory and even though it has fallen close to the zero line its progress has stopped at a value of 1. Momentum is therefore still in positive territory and might push price higher this week.
Market Shows Uncertainty For Oil Prices
GoNoGo Trend shows amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty crept in at the end of last week. This comes after price tried and failed to set a higher high. Price seems stuck in a range now. GoNoGo Oscillator broke above the zero line last week and so momentum is positive, hinting at price’s next direction. If the oscillator can remain in positive territory we may see price paint “Go” bars.
Gold “Go” Trend Continues To Weaken
Gold managed to remain in a “Go” trend but prices continue to fall from the failed attempt at a new higher high a few weeks ago. As price tries to find some support we notice that GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen through the zero line and is now in negative territory at a value of -3. Momentum is out of line with the trend and so we will watch this week for a resolution. If the oscillator stay sin negative territory then it is quite likely price would fall into a new “NoGo” trend.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLY, and $XLI, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Industries Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the industrial sector this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLI. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLI is a long time out-performer of the base index. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that in the last panel, the commercial vehicles index has been out-performing for some time and is currently painting strong blue bars.
$CYD Tries to Establish “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend after rallying out of a “NoGo” trend the new “Go” has not had an easy time taking hold. We saw amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty and weak aqua bars. GoNoGo Oscillator broke out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze a few weeks ago which give price the push it needed to climb out of the “NoGo” but the oscillator quickly tested the zero line again from above. We will watch closely this week. If the oscillator can find support at zero and rally back into positive territory that should give price the push it needs to hang on to its new “Go” trend.
$DE Breaks to a New High
The chart below shows strength for $DE. After breaking out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory the oscillator has found support at that level as GoNoGo Trend entered a new “Go” trend. With soaring momentum and heavy volume, price has been able to break above horizontal resistance and make a new high. We will look for price to consolidate at these elevated levels this week before potentially looking for more gains.
