Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities have remained in a “Go” trend but we are seeing more weakness as multiple paler aqua bars creep into the picture. GoNoGo Trend shows that for treasury bond prices there has been a change in trend with an aqua “Go” bar. U.S. commodities remain in a strong blue “Go” bar with consistent bright blue bars and the dollar remains embroiled in a “NoGo” trend with the indicator painting weaker pink bars.
$SPY Prices Move Sideways Since High
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remains in place however we are seeing more weakness as the indicator sprinkles in weaker aqua bars. If we turn our attention to the lower panel we can see that GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from above where we will watch to see if it finds support. Volume is heavy representing strong market participation in the price activity.
The weekly chart shows a new trend this week. After 5 weeks of amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty we can see that GoNoGo Trend has painted a first aqua “Go” bar. It will be important to see if this trend can hold or if market volatility will cause it to retreat. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory and on heavy volume at a value of 2 and so we will will look to see if this helps price continue in the “Go” trend.
Treasury Reverse Trend with “NoGo”
GoNoGo Trend shows that after several weeks of weakening, the “Go” trend has given way to a new “NoGo” trend reflected by the indicator painting pale pink bars. With GoNoGo Oscillator continuing to find resistance at the zero line and getting rejected by that level we know that momentum is now aligned with the new “NoGo” trend. We will watch to see if rates can make a lower low this week.
Dollar “NoGo” Meanders Sideways
The trend in the dollar remains a “NoGo”, but we see that it failed to set a new lower low again this past week and now prices are rallying on weaker pink bars. We look at the oscillator panel and we can see that momentum is testing the zero line from below and volume is heavy. It will be important to see whether this level acts as resistance again or if the oscillator can break into positive territory. This will give clues as to the Greenback’s next direction.
Oil Continues Higher with Strong “Go” Bars
GoNoGo Trend shows continued “Go” strength this week as the indicator painted uninterrupted bright blue bars and price climbed higher. We do see that there maybe strong resistance in the form of prior highs (indicated with the horizontal level on the chart) and price may struggle with this in the coming days. We also see that GoNoGo Oscillator is overbought and as it falls out of extreme territory we may see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) which would indicate a short term struggle.
Gold Remains Stuck Below Prior Highs
We see a “Go” trend sticking around this week but there has been no break through to new highs. After failing once more to climb higher, we see that GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen to test the zero line again where we will watch to see if it can continue to find support. Volume has picked up and so we know that there is strong market activity at these price levels and so it will be important to note the next direction of the oscillator.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLC and $XLE, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Communications Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the technology sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLC. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLC is a new, strong out-performer of the base index painting strong relative blue “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the internet index, and the entertainment index in the top two panels are painting relative “Go” bars.
$MSGE Striving for New Highs
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend is strong once again with the indicator painting bright blue bar. In doing so, we see that price has run up agains overhead resistance that has proven so far impossible to deal with. This would be a third attempt to surpass the highs from earlier in the chart. GoNoGo Oscillator has powered back through the zero line into positive territory and that is what gives us another Go Trend Continuation Icon (green circle) under the price bar. We will watch to see if this momentum burst gives price the push it needs to finally break to a new high.
$FWONK “Races” to New Higher High
The chart below shows that $FWONK has been able to break free from the horizontal channel. After moving sideways for several weeks we saw GoNoGo Trend return to paint strong blue “Go” bars as price stormed through resistance. This comes as GoNoGo Oscillator breaks out of a GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory. With volume increasing and signs of Go Trend Continuation (green circle) we will look for price to consolidate at these new higher highs before potentially climbing higher in the coming days and weeks.
