Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend remained in a “Go” trend and we saw continued strength this week as the indicator paints a string of uninterrupted bright blue bars. Treasury bond prices are still stuck in a “NoGo” but more weak pink bars are painted this week. U.S. commodities after a period of uncertainty saw the “Go” trend return and the week ended with a few strong blue bars. The dollar has been unable to break free from the grip of the “NoGo” although we do see some weakness again with pink bars.
$SPY Creeps Higher with More Strong “Go” Bars
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remained strong this past week. A string of bright blue bars took price to new highs and now we can look back to the highs from earlier in the year as a target. GoNoGo Oscillator continues to stay in positive territory after having found support at that level several times. Volume is heavy and with momentum on the side of the trend we will watch to see if price can climb from here.
The weekly chart shows yet more uncertainty with another amber “Go Fish” bar. The weight of the evidence tells us to be slightly bullish as GoNoGo Oscillator has broken back into positive territory on heavy volume. We will watch to see if this burst of momentum will be enough to trigger a trend change in the price panel. If it does, then we will look for an attempt to challenge all time highs.
Treasury Regain Strength
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend has survived this week. After a couple of weeks of weakness, we see strength return in the form of bright blue “Go” bars. This comes as GoNoGo Oscillator re-tests the zero line from below. We will look to see if the oscillator regains positive territory in the coming days. If it does, we will look for rates to hold on to the “Go” trend and potentially challenge for a new high.
Dollar Remains Stuck in “NoGo”
The trend in the dollar remains a “NoGo”, and it remains weak as the indicator paints pink bars. There is not a lot of movement however as price has been unable to set a new lower low. GoNoGo Oscillator is in negative territory but rising on heavy volume at a value of -1. We will watch to see if the oscillator remains at or below the zero line which would allow it to continue to confirm the trend.
Oil Flashes New “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows us that there is a new trend this week with the indicator painting “Go” bars as price edges higher out of an ascending triangle and above horizontal resistance. This comes after GoNoGo Oscillator broke out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory a week ago. We will look for price to consolidate at these levels and find support going forward.
Gold “Go” Going Nowhere
Gold prices found “Go” colors again this week with a mix of blue and aqua. However, trading range remains small and we have seen mostly sideways movement now for a few weeks. We will pay attention to the GoNoGo Oscillator to see if it stays at or above the zero line which would provide important support for the trend. If the trend holds, and we see momentum resurgence then we will watch for an attack on prior highs.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLC, and $XLI, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Technology Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the technology sector this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLK. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLK is a consistent out-performer of the base index. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that in the second panel, the software index remains strong as it paints strong relative blue “Go” bars.
$NET Looks To Consolidate at New Highs
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend has been strong with uninterrupted bright blue bars since near the very beginning of the trend. We see that price has run quickly up to the highs from February and has already closed higher. GoNoGo Oscillator has been overbought for several weeks as the market enthusiasm has held strong. It will be important to see if price can consolidate at these highs and allow the oscillator to find support at zero should we see any sideways movement.
$PLTR Looks to Hold Support in “Go” Trend
The chart below shows that $PLTR is struggling to break free from the congestion area we see on the chart. Having made new highs in May, price has moved mostly sideway since. We will watch to see if it continues to use the prior high from February as support. This is a good example of the concept of polarity, where what was once resistance can become support. We will also need to see the GoNoGo oscillator climb back into positive territory which would confirm the trend in the price panel.
