Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend continued this week as we saw uninterrupted strong blue bars as price made a new slightly higher high. Treasury bond prices remained in a “Go” trend but we saw some weakness with aqua bars. U.S. commodities also stayed in a “Go” and at the end of the week we saw a strong blue bar. The dollar painted another week of uninterrupted aqua bars as the “Go” trend held on.
$SPY Stays Strong with Another High
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remained strong this week as price made another higher high on bright blue bars. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory but no longer overbought at a value of 3. With momentum confirming the trend we will watch to see if price can consolidate at these elevated levels this week.
The weekly chart shows that the strong “Go” trend continues on the longer time frame chart. With another bright blue bar at a new high there is no indication that the trend is slowing. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory at a value of 3 and no longer overbought. Volume remains heavy showing good market participation.
Treasury Rates Move Sideways in “NoGo”
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” trend survives but rates have failed to make a lower low and the indicator is painting lighter pink bars. GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from below where we will watch to see if it finds resistance. If it does, we will look for rates to try once again to move lower.
Dollar Displays Weakness
The trend in the dollar remains a “NoGo” this week however we see GoNoGo Trend painting a run of weaker aqua bars. Since the last high, price has fallen for several weeks and we saw GoNoGo Oscillator ride the zero line and a Max GoNoGo Squeeze. Currently, the oscillator is breaking out of the Squeeze into negative territory which could further threaten the “Go” trend.
Oil Settles into “NoGo”
GoNoGo Trend shows that the new “NoGo” has settled in as we see the indicator painting strong purple bars after the lone pink bar that followed the uncertainty of a few amber “Go Fish” bars. GoNoGo Oscillator is in negative territory but not oversold at a value of -3. With momentum on the side of the “NoGo”, we will watch to see if we see further movement lower this week.
Gold Bugs “Go Fish”-ing
Once again we saw the “Go” trend give way to several amber “Go Fish” bars. It has been months since any trend has lasted more than a week. As the market appears uncertain, we see GoNoGo Oscillator riding the zero line and a GoNoGo Squeeze building. We will look for the direction of the Squeeze break to help us determine the precious metal’s next direction.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLY, and $XLC, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Communications Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the communications sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLC. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLC is a brand new out-performer of the base index painting relative aqua “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the internet index in the top panel remains strong as it paints relative “Go” bars.
$SPOT Looks For New “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that after a period of “NoGo” correction price gaps higher on an amber “Go Fish” bar. This new higher high suggests a change and we see GoNoGo Oscillator breaking out of a GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory for the first time since the last “Go” trend. With positive momentum we will watch to see if there will be a new “Go” trend identified this week.
$NFLX Trend Ready to Match Momentum?
The chart below shows that $NFLX is also trying to rally out of a “NoGo” trend. GoNoGo Oscillator spent little time at zero and burst into positive territory a few days ago. Now, with momentum at a value of 3, we see GoNoGo Trend painting an amber “Go Fish” bar of uncertainty as the market tries to identify a new trend. With strong momentum, we will watch to see if price can flag a “Go” this week.
