Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity hangs on but we see a weaker aqua bar at the end of the week as price fell hard. Treasury bond prices saw strength return as the indicator painted bright blue bars. U.S. commodities saw uncertainty with an amber “Go Fish” bar as the market hesitates. GoNoGo Trend shows that the new “Go” trend in the dollar has found strength this week with the indicator painting bright blue bars.
$SPY Flashes Weakness
The GoNoGo chart below shows that while the “Go” trend remains in place there was serious weakness on the last bar of the week as the indicator paints paler aqua and price falls after a couple of Go Countertrend Correction Icons. GoNoGo Oscillator fell sharply to the zero line and has dipped its nose into negative territory. It will be important to watch this week to see if the oscillator reclaims positive territory.
The weekly chart shows continued bright blue “Go” bars however we see a second Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) on the last bar as momentum wanes. We look to the oscillator panel and we see that GoNoGo Oscillator is falling sharply at a value of 2 and volume is heavy. We will look to see if it finds support should it arrive at zero.
Treasury Rates Remain in “NoGo” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “NoGo” trend continued this week and we saw strength return as the indicator paints strong purple bars and we see a NoGo Trend Continuation Icon (red circle). This tells us that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the trend. This comes after GoNoGo Oscillator fell back into negative territory and is at a value of -1.
Dollar Tests Overhead Resistance
The chart below shows that the dollar saw a lot of strength this past week as GoNoGo Trend painted a string of bright blue bars that saw price fly higher to test highs from early in the summer. We can see that it immediately struggled with this level and was turned away. We see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) as momentum wanes.
Oil Settles Into a NoGo Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that the new “NoGo” trend saw strength this week as price gapped to lower lows on a strong purple bar. We see that GoNoGo Oscillator reversed course as it approached zero and is now falling deep into negative territory at a value of -4 and volume is heavy. We will watch to see if price can fall further in the coming days and weeks.
Gold Remains at Elevated Levels
The chart below shows that the price trend remains elevated as we see nothing but strong blue “Go” bars at or close to the highs. This has been a fast run for the precious metal since moving to new higher highs in early September. We turn our attention to the GoNoGo Oscillator panel and we see that it remains at overbought levels moving between values of 5 and 6. We will keep an eye on the oscillator this week to see if there is any waning of momentum leading to a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow).
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 3 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLV, and $XLU are painting relative “Go” bars.
Healthcare Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the healthcare sector this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLV. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLV is out-performing the base index and paints strong relative “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the healthcare providers index in the third panel is a consistent leader and is again painting strong blue “Go” bars on a relative basis.
$HIMS at Inflection Point
GoNoGo Trend shows the “Go” trend survives but paints another weaker aqua bar as price is able to make slightly higher lows. However, we do not see clearly higher highs and GoNoGo Oscillator shows falling highs as momentum disappears. With the oscillator at zero, we will watch to see if it can rally back into positive territory. If it does, then we will know that momentum remains aligned with the “Go” trend. If it does not, we will expect more pressure on price and perhaps a fall to a lower low.
$BTSG Looks for Support in “Go” Trend
The chart below shows that $BTSG is in a “Go” trend and we have seen a series of higher highs and higher lows. During this time, GoNoGo Oscillator has been at or above the zero line finding support at that level. After the last higher high, we saw a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) indicating that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. Indeed, we then saw a few weaker aqua bars. With the oscillator testing zero again, it will be important to note if it finds support. If it does, we will see a Go Trend Continuation Icon (green circle) under the price bar and will look for price to make an attempt at another higher high.
