Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The equity trend remained in a “Go” but we saw a single bar of weakness as the week ended with a pale aqua bar. Treasury bond prices wobbled this week and we saw an amber “Go Fish” bar of uncertainty between weak pink bars as the “NoGo” trend looks shaky. U.S. commodity prices saw strong blue bars this entire week as the “Go” trend continues. The dollar sees no end to its troubles with the “NoGo” persisting and the indicator painting strong purple bars.
$SPY Stalls After Higher High
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend remains in place but after a new higher high we do see some weakness with an aqua bar as price falls slightly from the high. GoNoGo Oscillator has turned back toward the zero line before having hit overbought territory and volume is heavy. We will watch to see if the oscillator approaches the zero line and whether or not it finds support when it gets there. We will need to see this if there is any chance for price to climb higher in the coming days and weeks.
The weekly chart shows continued uncertainty as price struggles with prior highs from earlier this year. This makes 5 weeks in a row now of amber “Go Fish” bars and so we can see that there is no consensus on whether price should ultimately return to all time highs. GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory having broken out of a small GoNoGo Squeeze and volume is heavy showing that there is a slight advantage for those hoping for upside.
Treasury Remains in “Go” Trend with Aqua Bars
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” barely survived this week. After an amber “Go Fish” bar, we saw the “Go” trend return but with weaker aqua bars as price managed to hold its lows from just over a week ago. We look at the oscillator panel and we see it is an important time with GoNoGo Oscillator again testing the zero line from below. We will watch to see if it can break back into positive territory or if it gets rejected from here. This will help determine price’s next direction.
Dollar “NoGo” Strength Returns
The trend in the dollar remains a “NoGo”, and we see strength return this week as the indicator paints purple bars as price threatens to challenge the lows from late April. Having just been rejected by the zero line, we see GoNoGo Oscillator falling into negative territory after the NoGo Trend Continuation Icon (red circle) that we saw on the price panel. With momentum confirming the trend, we will look to see if the greenback moves lower this week.
Oil Gaps Higher in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows continued “Go” strength this week as the indicator painted uninterrupted bright blue bars. We also saw price gap higher on Friday closing higher than the high from the beginning of April. GoNoGo Oscillator has raced into overbought territory and volume is heavy. We will watch closely this week to see if oil prices can consolidate at these high levels. We will look for a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) if momentum wanes.
Gold Makes Another Push For High
Gold saw the “Go” trend rally yet again this week as aqua bars turned bright blue and price jumped to test prior highs. GoNoGo Oscillator has continued to find support at the zero line and that has helped propel price higher. This is the latest of many attempts to move higher and if a new high is made then we may see price climb rapidly with no overhead resistance.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 2 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, and $XLI, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Technology Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the technology sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLK. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLK is a consistent out-performer of the base index painting strong relative blue “Go” bars. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the renewable energy index remains strong as it paints strong relative blue “Go” bars.
$FTCI Edges Higher in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend has continued this past week with the indicator painting a string of bright blue bars as price calmly climbed higher and above the horizontal resistance we see on the chart. This came after GoNoGo Oscillator found support multiple times at the zero line with strong market participation (heavy volume, dark blue oscillator line). We will look for price to use what was once resistance as support if it needs it going forward and target the highs from the beginning of the chart.
$BLDP Breaks Above Resistance
The chart below shows that $BLDP has also climbed above resistance this week. We can see that price pushed through what had been strong resistance levels on bright blue bars. We see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) indicating that price may struggle to go higher in the short term but we will apply the concept of polarity to expect support at the horizontal level that was resistance should it need it. The high from the beginning of the year should be a target if that support is found.
