Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities remain in a “Go” trend and we see strong blue bars as price makes a new higher high. Treasury bond prices keep hold of the new “Go” trend and we see the trend strengthening to paint bright blue bars. U.S. commodities remain in a “Go” trend but we see weakness as the indicator paints a string of paler aqua bars. The dollar’s “NoGo” trend continues to move lower and we see the indicator painting strong purple bars.
$SPY Prices Break to New Highs
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the “Go” trend continued this week and the trend was strong as we see an uninterrupted string of bright blue bars this week. If we turn our attention to the oscillator panel we can see that quite recently it found support again at zero and volume is heavy. We will watch to see if this momentum surge will help keep price pushing higher this week.
The weekly chart shows that the brand new trend strengthened this week as we see a strong blue “Go” bar. GoNoGo Oscillator continues its move higher into positive territory after breaking out of a small GoNoGo Squeeze a few weeks ago. Momentum is in line with the new “Go” trend and we will look for prices to consolidate at these higher levels going forward.
Treasury “NoGo” Moves Lower
GoNoGo Trend shows the new “NoGo” has fallen all week with consecutive purple “NoGo” bars as rates fall within the sideways range. GoNoGo Oscillator remains in negative territory but not yet oversold at a value of -3. Momentum and trend are in sync and so we will expect possible further downside for rates this week.
Dollar “NoGo” Finds New Legs
The trend in the dollar continues lower as GoNoGo Trend paints strong purple “NoGo” bars and price made a slightly lower low this past week. GoNoGo Oscillator remains in negative territory as it finds resistances at the zero line repeatedly. Now, with heavy volume, we see the oscillator falling into negative territory but not yet oversold at a value of -3.
Oil “Go” Trend Quickly Threatened
GoNoGo Trend shows a sharp reaction to the “Go” trend as price fell dramatically after a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow). GoNoGo Trend has since been painting weaker aqua bars as price looks for support. GoNoGo Oscillator fell to test the zero line from above on heavy volume. It rides that level for a few bars as we see a GoNoGo Squeeze starting to build.
Gold “Go” Falters Indicator Paints “Go Fish”
We see the “Go” trend falter this week as GoNoGo Trend paints an amber “Go Fish” bar of uncertainty after a full week of paler aqua bars. This comes as GoNoGo Oscillator fails to find support at zero and we see it crashing into negative territory out of a GoNoGo Squeeze. This tells us that momentum is negative and we could expect price to continue to struggle this week.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 2 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, and $XLC, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Technology Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the technology sector again this week. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLK. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLK has been in a “Go” trend for several weeks and is helping power U.S. equities higher. When we look at the below RelMap we can see that the semiconductor index in the third panel is painting strong blue relative “Go” bars.
$AMCR Looks for Support in “Go” Trend
GoNoGo Trend shows that the “Go” trend has continued this week and the indicator paints strong blue bars as price tries to make a new higher high. So far it has struggled to do so, and GoNoGo Oscillator has quickly retreated to zero where we will watch to see if it again finds support. If it does, it may help give price the push it needs to move higher.
$AVGO Breaks Higher in “Go” Trend
The chart below shows that the “Go” trend has continued this week and we see strength as the indicator paints strong blue bars. Price has been able to surpass horizontal resistance and so we will look for consolidation at these higher levels this week. GoNoGo Oscillator recently broke out of a GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory and we see that volume is heavy as it has raced into overbought territory.
